MON · MARCH 30, 2026 · ISSUE #001

📌 TODAY'S TOPIC

Why a 21-mile gap between Iran and Oman is shaking the entire global economy — and what it means for your gas prices, your grocery bill, and your portfolio.

🔍 WHAT IS IT?

Imagine a garden hose that carries 20% of the world's oil. Now imagine someone stepped on it.

That's essentially what's happening right now in the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that is, quite literally, the jugular vein of global energy.

The strait is just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, yet its two shipping lanes carry around 20 million barrels of oil per day — roughly 20% of all oil traded globally. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar all depend on it as their only exit to the open ocean.

Right now, that hose is being stepped on. Hard. Daily transits through the strait have fallen sharply, with hundreds of tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices have closed at their highest level since 2022 — U.S. crude above $99 and Brent above $112 per barrel.

📖 INTERESTING HISTORY

The Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint for centuries — but this isn't the first time it threatened the world economy.

1973 — The Original Oil Shock After the Yom Kippur War, Arab OPEC members cut off oil exports to the U.S. Oil prices quadrupled in months. Americans sat in gas lines for hours. The U.S. economy fell into recession. That single event permanently changed how the world thinks about energy security.

1980 — The Tanker War During the Iran-Iraq War, both sides attacked each other's oil tankers in the Gulf. The U.S. Navy eventually had to escort Kuwaiti tankers under American flags. Sound familiar?

Today — History Rhymes The current disruption is being compared to each of those moments — but what makes today different is the sheer scale. Those past events disrupted parts of the supply. This one has nearly stopped it entirely.

💡 WHY IT MATTERS TO YOU

This isn't just a Middle East story. Here's how it reaches your wallet:

⛽ Gas prices Oil above $100/barrel historically pushes U.S. gas prices above $4–5/gallon. Americans are already watching prices at the pump climb as shipments grind to a halt.

🥦 Groceries This one surprises people. About one-third of global fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer prices have already jumped significantly — and the spring planting season for Midwest corn and soy is right now. Higher fertilizer costs mean higher food prices in 3–6 months.

📦 Everything else Aluminum, plastics, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals all flow through this corridor. Major shipping lines have already suspended their Middle East routes.

📉 Your portfolio Energy stocks are up. Airlines, manufacturers, and consumer discretionary stocks are under pressure. The macro read: if the strait stays closed through April, recession risk rises sharply.

📊 THE NUMBER TO KNOW $2,000,000 That's what Iran has reportedly been charging some vessels just to pass through the strait — a de facto "toll booth" run by the Revolutionary Guard. A chokepoint has become a cash register.

⏭ NEXT ISSUE — WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1

What is the Fed, and why does it keep saying "higher for longer"?

With oil above $100 and inflation back in the headlines, the Federal Reserve is in a very uncomfortable spot. On Wednesday we'll break down exactly what the Fed can and can't do — and what it means for your money.

Thanks for reading MWF Macro.

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